One might very well complain about his lack of capacity for coherent or logical thought, but one must respect Andrew Sullivan's ability to spot a trend. This respect should be doubled when he isn't emotionally invested in the occurrence of the trend. So when he says he thinks Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination and the general election, I pay attention. Especially since I've been saying the same thing, albeit until now not in an easily-googled forum where I can be laughed at when it doesn't happen.
So bold prediction: Obama is inaugurated the 44th president of the US in January 2009.
Is this a good thing (relative to the alternatives)? I'm not sure. I'd like to see a Kucinich-Paul matchup, but I would concede the probability of such occurrence is low. Obama's foreign policy types seem to be of the Ignatieff school of bombing everyone into human rights. Still, at least his post-presidential memoirs will be readeable, something I doubt could be said of any other American politician.