Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Predictions are Hard, Especially About the Future: Post-New Hampshire Edition

One of the messages of behavioural economics is that we always over-react to the latest news. Obama still wins the Democratic nomination, and the Presidency.

I will, however, have to revise my Republican nomination prediction. I still think the reanimated corpse of Fred Thompson could have taken this thing, if only someone had bothered to actually reanimate it. But it was not to be. Romney will be taking the G.O.P. brand into November.

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