Huckamentum

Democratic pollster says Huckabee's best bet for Republican nomination in 2012.

Who called it in 2008? Oh yeah.

Of course, in light of this blog's past record, Huckabee shouldn't start celebrating yet.

Pennsylvania Crystal Ball

Lasting a little longer than the World Wars, and not quite so long as the rivalry between the Papacy and the Holy Roman Empire, the Pennsylvania primary will be over tonight.

I'd say Clinton by 9 points.

Who is going to win the Republican nomination?

Long-time readers will remember I went out on a bit of a limb, and predicted Obama would win the Democratic nomination. The truth is that if I was actually putting money down on this, I'd want odds: Hillary will probably be the actual winner. Still, I'd buy Obama contracts at the market price (assuming, counterfactually, that I could induce my spouse to agree to such a frivolous expenditure).

The Republican field is more difficult. It's not really that they are, in an objective sense, weak candidates: the top tier all have individually more impressive accomplishments than Bush or the 2008 Democratic contenders. And yet. Giuliani's position on abortion seems likely to doom him for the nomination, and maybe make a devestating third party challenge inevitable if elected. It is hard to really imagine a woman voting for him (although it is also difficult to see men enthusiastic about Ms. Clinton.) Conventional wisdom holds that McCain is doomed in the primaries, and conventional wisdom is probably right. That leaves Romney and Thompson. I guess by elimination one of them is going to get it, and I'd bet on Thompson for now.

I'd say the probability of the Democrats taking the White House is about 60%. They are almost certain to retain the House and the Senate, although I don't think they'll improve their margin very much.

Obama in '08

One might very well complain about his lack of capacity for coherent or logical thought, but one must respect Andrew Sullivan's ability to spot a trend. This respect should be doubled when he isn't emotionally invested in the occurrence of the trend. So when he says he thinks Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination and the general election, I pay attention. Especially since I've been saying the same thing, albeit until now not in an easily-googled forum where I can be laughed at when it doesn't happen.

So bold prediction: Obama is inaugurated the 44th president of the US in January 2009.

Is this a good thing (relative to the alternatives)? I'm not sure. I'd like to see a Kucinich-Paul matchup, but I would concede the probability of such occurrence is low. Obama's foreign policy types seem to be of the Ignatieff school of bombing everyone into human rights. Still, at least his post-presidential memoirs will be readeable, something I doubt could be said of any other American politician.

Hindsight, Part II

Fred S. reminds me of this unprescient statement by a certain pseudonymous Canadian lawyer:

Well, the purpose of bringing in a francophone has generally been to win francophone votes. Since Dion is more unpopular in Quebec than either Rae or Ignatieff, I don't think he is going to get it. I think he's the sentimental favourite, but sentimental favourites don't win.

Oops. Still two (as yet) unfalsified predictions in that post.